Ohio Ag Weather and Forecast November 29, 2018

first_imgShare Facebook Twitter Google + LinkedIn Pinterest Clouds dominate through the rest of the week now, and we are going to have to deal with a bit of minor precipitation as well. A frontal complex is pushing towards us, and we are expecting south winds to develop today. That will warm the region, and the trough passage will trigger the precipitation. Light snow can be seen this morning in far northern parts of Ohio, and will not be a big deal. We may see some stronger spats of flurries in NE Ohio, but as winds shift south today, that takes the lake out of the equation. Light rain this afternoon develops in far far southwest and southern Ohio. Actually, better rains develop overnight tonight through at least midday and early afternoon tomorrow, spreading from those south and southwest locations across about 70% of the rest of the state. Moisture totals will be from a few hundredths to .2” over about 60% of the state with the upper end of that moisture range down near the Ohio river as well as far eastern parts of the state. We should be dry in all areas later Friday afternoon, and wont rule out some sunshine, but that may be a little optimistic.Big rains arrive Saturday and sweep across the entire state and Saturday night. Strong gusty winds will accompany the rain, and there can be some thunderstorms, particularly in west central and southwest Ohio. The storm circulation continues to look as strong as earlier this week, which means we can see a big dry slot to rotate in for Sunday, but right now that dry slot still looks more likely to dominate Indiana rather than Ohio. Here, we are going to allow for scattered showers to hold through the day Sunday over at least 50% of the state. But, we are going to still keep full event (both days) rain totals at half to 1.5” over 100% of the state. Temperatures will be well above normal for the weekend, including that dry period Sunday. The map at right is an updated look at precipitation through the end of Sunday night (keep in mind the rains really are done before midnight Saturday)Cold air finally blasts into the state overnight Sunday night through Monday, as we get the backside circulation coming in from the north and west. This will trigger light snow for Monday and Tuesday, with minor accumulations, mostly over the northern part of the state. Models are a little conflicted on the snow totals, but at this point we are thinking mostly minor (a coating to an inch or two) with the best chances coming in lake enhanced areas. Mixed clouds and sun will accompany the cold air over the rest of the state. WE stay dry and cold for Wednesday and Thursday, with better sunshine potential.Light snow returns Friday afternoon of next week, and then continues through Saturday. We are starting to see signs that this wave could be a bit more of a problem this morning. There is a decent chance for some significant snow accumulation next Saturday out of this, and we will be watching it. Moisture available to the system will be from .25”-.75” liquid equivalent, and it hits about 80% of the state. We go back dry again for Sunday through Tuesday of the week after next.The rest of the extended period has a significant warm up. We see above normal temps move in quickly from Tuesday night through Thursday (11th through the 13th). In this time, we see rain develop for Thursday the 13th, and they can be from .25”-.5” over 80% of the state. Then cold air blasts back in for Thursday night through Friday the 14th, and that chances rain back to snow, with the potential for accumulations.This forecast continues to show a very active pattern, and dry windows are limited to no more than 3 days in between very significant precipitation makers. This is not a good dry down forecast, but the cold air early next week is substantial, and may give some parts of the state (up north) a chance to firm the ground just a bit through freezing. Time will tell. The warming we see this weekend though stacks the deck against it, though.last_img

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